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June, 2014
Summer started violently, but what next …?

When the weather is on headlines, it is usually not good news. This spring and summer many interesting facts and records were marked. Much outcry has been on June 2014, when a real summer atmosphere was missed, even on the Adriatic. However, climatological analysis indicates that the total monthly precipitation in most of Croatian regions was about average! With the exception of Dalmatia, where three to four times more rain fell than the 30-year mean values occurred, which this year's June classed in the category of extremely rainy!

And the current course of July has continued with the unusual weather. In Zadar, in just one hour monthly precipitation has fell, that is, forty liters per square meter, and throughout the day fell even 110 mm, which thereby surpassed numerous records! The situation in Dalmatia was unfavourable in many ways, of course, the one is tourism. However, it had a beneficial effect only on forest fires, which were relatively in small number.

As for the lowland regions, it is often forgotten that this is normally the rainiest part of the year. Therefore, the amounts in June, compared with the climatological mean (1961-1990), does not deviate significantly. However, one should take into account that the spring was exceptionally rainy. In April and especially May, the averages were exceeded by several times, and the ground has certainly retained part of the moisture. That is why the scenes like on this picture are not surprising.

 

 

As for the temperature, it was everywhere higher than the average for this time of year. The rating of June in most regions fits into the category warm and very warm, and somewhere in the northern Adriatic in the category of extremely hot, such as in Poreč and Mali Lošinj, where the average monthly temperature was even up to 2°C higher than normal! So far in July anomalies were negligible.

And what awaits us in the rest of the summer? We know that the reliability of long-term forecasts is significantly smaller than the medium-term. Seasonal forecasts roughly predict that, after the initial freshness, relatively warm weather will continue, especially in August. As for the precipitation, it should be within the normal range, which means mainly in the form of occasional local showers. Let's hope that such scenario will realize!

Lovro Kalin, dipl. ing.

Translated: Petra Sviličić, mag. phys.-geophys.

HAgMD @ 2014.